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A O'Hagan

Publications and source records attributed to A O'Hagan.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy for Gaucher's disease: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this review is to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in the treatment of symptomatic Gaucher's disease. DATA SOURCES: Major electronic databases were searched from their inception to August 2003; and updated from January 2003 to July/August 2004. REVIEW METHODS: Databases were searched for studies that met the criteria and selected data were extracted and evaluated. Studies were assessed for their relevance to the UK context and the review objective. The bibliographic databases were also searched to identify existing cost studies, economic evaluations and models. A Markov decision model was constructed based on patients moving between states defined by the modified Severity Score Index (SSI). Most of the parameters were derived from the published literature. ERT was assumed to restore patients to full health in the base case. RESULTS: Sixty-three studies were included, all suggestive of benefit with ERT. However, the way in which the effects translate into patient well-being and survival or the need for services and resources has not been reliably estimated. Quality of life improvements with ERT have been reported. Nonetheless, studies based on the Short Form 36 (SF-36) indicate that patients treated with ERT continue to have reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) compared with the general population. No study attached utility values to quality of life measures for ERT-treated patients. Thirty-one studies relevant to the natural history of the disease were found. Sixteen looked at multiple clinical characteristics of a cohort of patients with type I Gaucher's disease. There was considerable within-study and between-study heterogeneity, but all showed that Gaucher's disease was a progressive condition. Some suggested that the disease may become more indolent in adulthood; however, studies were discrepant on this point. Most disease is diagnosed in adulthood, although about one-quarter presented in childhood, these patients having the most severe symptoms and greatest rate of progression. Modelling of natural history was undertaken using the five papers that reported the SSI for each patient, along with patient-level data on age, age at diagnosis, splenectomy status and genotype, to address the question of whether disease stabilises in adulthood and the degree of correlation between phenotype and genotype. Analysis of the available data suggested that disease progression is likely to slow markedly in adulthood and that genotype is a useful predictor of clinical expression of the disease. Five studies looked at quality of life. Data on this topic were also obtained from the registries. The evidence suggests that the vast majority of the clinical characteristics of type I Gaucher's disease have little impact on subjective HRQoL and that therefore for the majority of people with type I Gaucher's disease this may not be a severe condition. Bone and skeletal symptoms contribute most to the morbidity of the disease and can lead to severe pain and immobility. The mean cost per patient treated was approximately pounds sterling 86,000 per annum in England and Wales. The cost per patient varied considerably by dose. Four existing economic evaluations were found, all of which calculated a very high cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Using the Markov decision model, ERT was assumed to restore patients to full health in the base case. The estimated incremental cost per QALY [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)] in the base case ranged from pounds sterling 380,000 to pounds sterling 476,000 per QALY, depending on genotype. Univariate sensitivity analyses examined ERT not restoring full health, more severe disease progression in the untreated cohort, and only treating the most severely affected patients. These produced ICERs of approximately pounds sterling 1.4 million, pounds sterling 296,000 and pounds sterling 275,000 per QALY, respectively. The base-case unit cost of the drug is pounds sterling 2.975. The unit cost would have had to be reduced ten-fold, to pounds sterling 0.30, to obtain an ICER of pounds sterling 30,000 per QALY. At a unit cost of pounds sterling 1 the ICER would be pounds sterling 120,000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Although ERT for treating the 'average' Gaucher's disease patient exceeds the normal upper threshold for cost-effectiveness seen in NHS policy decisions by over ten-fold, some argue that since orphan drug legislation encouraged the manufacture of Cerezyme, and Gaucher's disease can be defined as an orphan disease, the NHS has little option but to provide it, despite its great expense. More information is required before the generalisability of the findings can be determined. Although data from the UK have been used wherever possible, these were very thin indeed. Nonetheless, even large errors in estimates of the distribution of genotype, genotype--phenotype associations, effectiveness and numbers of patients will not reduce the ICER to anywhere near the upper level of treatments usually considered cost-effective. Further research could help to clarify the many uncertainties that exist. However, although doing so will be of clinical interest, it is questionable whether, within the current pricing environment, such research would have any substantive impact on policy decisions. It is highly improbable that, whatever the findings of such research, the ICER could be brought down by the orders of magnitude required to make ERT an efficient use of health service resources. (The possible exception to this would be investigating the most efficient alternative treatment strategies for using ERT in a paediatric population only.) Moreover, if under equity considerations for orphan diseases the NHS feels it is important to provide this drug, regardless of its cost-effectiveness, then refining the precision of the ICER estimate also becomes superfluous.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Bayesian methods for design and analysis of cost-effectiveness trials in the evaluation of health care technologies.

We review the development of Bayesian statistical methods for the design and analysis of randomized controlled trials in the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies. We place particular emphasis on the benefits of the Bayesian approach; the implications of skew cost data; the need to model the data appropriately to generate efficient and robust inferences instead of relying on distribution-free methods; the importance of making full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences; and issues in the determination of sample size. Several new examples are presented to illustrate the methods. We conclude with a discussion of the key areas for future research.

Arthritis↗

Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data.

A key tool for assessing the relative cost-effectiveness of two treatments in health economics is the incremental C/E acceptability curve. We present Bayesian computations for this curve in the case where data on both costs and efficacy are available from a clinical trial. Analysis is given under various formulations of prior information. A case study is analysed in which reasonable prior information is shown to strengthen substantially the posterior inference, leading to a more conclusive assessment of cost-effectiveness. Calculations can be performed using readily available Bayesian software.

Anti-Asthmatic Agents↗

A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data.

We present a general Bayesian framework for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) from clinical trial data. This framework allows for very flexible modelling of both cost and efficacy related trial data. A common CEA technique is established for this wide class of models through linking mean efficacy and mean cost to the parameters of any given model. Examples are given in which efficacy may be measured as a continuous, binary, ordinal or time-to-event outcome, and in which costs are modelled as distributed normally, log-normally, as a mixture or non-parametrically. A case study is presented, illustrating the methodology and illuminating the role of prior information.

Bayes Theorem↗

Inference for the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve and cost-effectiveness ratio.

The aim of this article is to consider Bayesian and frequentist inference methods for measures of incremental cost effectiveness in data obtained via a clinical trial. The most useful measure is the cost-effectiveness (C/E) acceptability curve. Recent publications on Bayesian estimation have assumed a normal posterior distribution, which ignores uncertainty in estimated variances, and suggest unnecessarily complicated methods of computation. We present a simple Bayesian computation for the C/E acceptability curve and a simple frequentist analogue. Our approach takes account of errors in estimated variances, resulting in calculations that are based on distributions rather than normal distributions. If inference is required about the C/E ratio, we argue that the standard frequentist procedures give unreliable or misleading inferences, and present instead a Bayesian interval.

Antirheumatic Agents↗

Intestinal obstruction after lung transplantation in children with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Distal intestinal obstruction syndrome (DIOS) occurs in 15% of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). The authors reviewed their experience to determine the incidence, risk factors, and natural history of adhesive intestinal obstruction and DIOS after lung transplantation. METHODS: Eighty-three bilateral transplants were performed in 70 CF patients between January 1990 and September 1998. All were on pancreatic enzymes preoperatively, and none had preoperative bowel preparation. Fifty-six patients (80%) had prior gastrostomy (n = 54) or jejunostomy (n = 2). Eighteen patients (25.7%) had a previous laparotomy for meconium ileus (n = 8), fundoplication (n = 4), liver transplant (n = 1), jejunal atresia (n = 1), Janeway gastrostomy takedown (n = 1), pyloromyotomy (n = 1), free air (n = 1), or appendectomy (n = 1). RESULTS: After lung transplantation, 7 patients (10%) required laparotomy for bowel obstruction (6 during the same hospitalization, and 1 during a subsequent hospitalization). The causes of obstruction were adhesions only (n = 1), DIOS only (n = 2), and a combination of DIOS and adhesions (n = 4). Adhesiolysis was performed in the 5 patients with adhesions, and a small bowel resection was also performed in 1 patient. DIOS was treated by milking secretions distally without an enterotomy (n = 3) with an enterotomy and primary closure (n = 1) or with an end ileostomy and mucus fistula (n = 2). Five had recurrent DIOS early postoperatively. One resolved with intestinal lavage, 2 were treated successfully with hypaque disimpaction, and 2 underwent reoperation; 1 required an ileostomy. The most important risk factor for posttransplant obstruction was a previous major abdominal operation. Obstruction occurred in 7 of 18 (39%) who had undergone a prior laparotomy versus 0 of 52 who had not (P < .001, chi2). CONCLUSIONS: (1) The incidence of intestinal obstruction is high after lung transplantation in children with CF. (2) Previous laparotomy is a significant risk factor. (3) Recurrent obstruction after surgery for this condition is common. (4) Preventive measures such as pretransplant bowel preparation and early postoperative bowel lavage may be beneficial in these patients.

Adolescent↗

Practical Bayesian analysis of a simple logistic regression: predicting corneal transplants.

The Bayesian analysis of a logistic regression model is described using an example of predicting the need for a corneal transplant in keratoconus. Controversy over the use of subjective prior information in Bayesian methods is avoided by a formulation representing negligible prior information. Simple computational procedures are described, and it is argued that the results are more accurate, clearer and make fuller use of the information contained in the data. Analysis of more complex models is considered. In particular, it is argued that classical methods as implemented in the computer package GLIM can be used as approximations to Bayesian methods, particularly at the initial stage of model selection.

Bayes Theorem↗

Predictors for likelihood of corneal transplantation in keratoconus.

A group of 70 patients who had attended the Keratoconus Clinic at Moorfields Eye Hospital over a 10-year period were analysed retrospectively. At the end of this period 23 eyes had undergone corneal transplantation. This gave an overall probability of 16%, various information obtained at the initial visit was then analysed for a possible relationship with the probability of needing a transplant within ten years. The only significant relationship found was the initial corneal radius as determined by the back optic radius of the first contact lens. A graph was constructed plotting probability of corneal transplant against each radius at the first visit, which could assist clinicians in advising patients.

Adult↗

Factors influencing post-operative hospital stay after transurethral resection of the prostate gland.

The influence of 12 clinical and social factors on the length of post-operative stay in hospital after transurethral resection of the prostate was investigated in 100 patients. Using a multiple binary regression analysis, the factors significantly associated with a post-operative stay exceeding 6 days were: patient's age greater than 70 years (P less than 0.005), the presence of existing cardiovascular disease (P less than 0.005) and the weight of the prostate gland resected greater than 10 g (P less than 0.005). The first two factors are useful in providing a prediction of prolonged post-operative stay. The results indicate that those factors associated with a prolonged post-operative stay are beyond the control of the clinician.

Age Factors↗

Bayesian assessment of sample size for clinical trials of cost-effectiveness.

The authors present an analysis of the choice of sample sizes for demonstrating cost-effectiveness of a new treatment or procedure, when data on both cost and efficacy will be collected in a clinical trial. The Bayesian approach to statistics is employed, as well as a novel Bayesian criterion that provides insight into the sample size problem and offers a very flexible formulation.

Bayes Theorem↗