Viral load and combination therapy for human immunodeficiency virus.
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Anti-HIV Agents↗
Biomedical subjects
A N Phillips
Publications and source records attributed to A N Phillips.
Antiretroviral treatment and progression to AIDS in HIV seroconverters from different risk groups. HIV Italian Seroconversion Study.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between time since initiation of pre-AIDS antiretroviral therapy [mainly with zidovudine (ZDV)] and AIDS-free survival in a cohort of HIV seroconverters, and to assess possible differences in this association and in the use of antiretroviral therapy by HIV exposure group. DESIGN: Observational study of HIV-infected individuals, both those treated with antiretroviral therapy and those untreated, enrolled in an ongoing prospective cohort (median follow-up, 5.3. years). SETTING: Sixteen HIV outpatient clinics throughout Italy. PATIENTS: A total of 1,078 individuals infected with HIV through injecting drug use or homo-/heterosexual activity, and with accurately estimated dates of seroconversion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODS: Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probability of receiving antiretroviral therapy before AIDS. Crude and adjusted relative hazards of AIDS and of death from AIDS using Cox regression models. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of beginning pre-AIDS antiretroviral therapy within 7 years of seroconversion was 49.2%. Injecting drug users (IDU) were less likely to undergo antiretroviral treatment before AIDS than homosexual men and heterosexual contacts. The adjusted relative hazard of developing AIDS for patients treated with ZDV (relative hazard adjusted for occurrence of acute HIV disease, pre-AIDS HIV-related diseases, CD4 count, and use of prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia) was 0.57 within the first year of starting zidovudine and 0.92 after 1 year of therapy. Stratifying by HIV exposure category, the adjusted relative hazards of AIDS for individuals who started ZDV less and more than 1 year before AIDS were 0.74 and 0.99 among IDU, 0.31 and 0.89 among homosexual men, and 0.69 and 0.72 among heterosexuals, respectively. Similar results were obtained when using death from AIDS as an endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: IDU began pre-AIDS antiretroviral therapy significantly later than homosexual men and heterosexuals, even after adjusting for CD4 count. Results from this non-randomized study confirm that antiretroviral treatment has only a short-term clinical benefit. There was a stronger association between antiretroviral treatment and lower risk of AIDS in homosexual men than in IDU.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Survival after diagnosis of AIDS: a prospective observational study of 2625 patients. Royal Free/Chelsea and Westminster Hospitals Collaborative Group.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate median survival and changes in survival in patients diagnosed as having AIDS. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Clinics in two large London hospitals. SUBJECTS: 2625 patients with AIDS seen between 1982 and July 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival, estimated using lifetable analyses, and factors associated with survival, identified from Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Median survival (20 months) was longer than previous estimates. The CD4 lymphocyte count at or before initial AIDS defining illness decreased significantly over time from 90 x 10(6)/1 during 1987 or earlier to 40 x 10(6)/1 during 1994 and 1995 (P < 0.0001). In the first three months after diagnosis, patients in whom AIDS was diagnosed after 1987 had a much lower risk of death (relative risk 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.22 to 0.86; P = 0.017) than patients diagnosed before 1987. When the diagnosis was based on oesophageal candidiasis or Kaposi's sarcoma, patients had a lower risk of death than when the diagnosis was based on Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (0.21 (0.07 to 0.59). P = 0.0030 and 0.37 (0.16 to 0.83), P = 0.016). Three months after AIDS diagnosis, the risk of death was similar in patients whose diagnosis was made after and before 1987 (1.02 (0.79 to 1.31), P = 0.91). There were no differences in survival between patients diagnosed during 1988-90, 1991-3, or 1994-5. CONCLUSIONS: In later years, patients were much more likely to survive their initial illness, but long term survival has remained poor. The decrease in CD4 lymphocyte count at AIDS diagnosis indicates that patients are being diagnosed as having AIDS at ever more advanced stages of immunodeficiency.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Cross-sectional studies in AIDS pathogenesis: how far can they mislead us?
When investigating variables thought to be of potential importance to AIDS pathogenesis, it is common practice to initially carry out a cross-sectional study comparing those with symptomatic disease/low CD4 counts with those with no symptoms/high CD4 counts. While it is widely appreciated that such studies have weaknesses compared with those involving patient follow-up, the particular biases likely to arise in the context of HIV infection have not been formally evaluated. In an attempt to do this, data on HIV progression for 50,000 notional patients who became infected in the years between 1976 (assumed to be the start of the epidemic) and 2010 were simulated under various scenarios. In Scenario 1, we considered a variable called X, which was specified to be associated with more rapid progression of HIV infection. In Scenario 2, we considered a variable Y, which was specified not to be associated with more rapid progression but which tended to change in value as a result of HIV-induced immunosuppression. Variable Z, in Scenario 3, was specified to be associated with more rapid progression and to change in value when severe immunosuppression developed. Cross-sectional analyses evaluating the association between variables X, Y, and Z and the CD4 count/presence of AIDS were performed for data as of 1980, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 to assess the extent to which the true role of the three variables could be ascertained. For Scenario 1, cross-sectional analyses performed on these data later in the epidemic falsely suggested that variable X was not related to HIV progression. Variable Y in Scenario 2 falsely appeared to be related to HIV progression, due to the inability of the cross-sectional design to distinguish the fact that changes in variable Y were as a result of immunosuppression and not a possible cause of it. In Scenario 3, variable Z showed a relationship with the presence of AIDS for which the typical interpretation would lead to the suggestion that its effect is in the reverse direction to that which was, in fact, the case. In conclusion, as the HIV epidemic progresses, cross-sectional studies will increasingly tend to give misleading results. Most importantly, it is incorrect to conclude that variables found to have no association with HIV disease stage in such studies are not of potential importance to pathogenesis.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
The relationship between beta-2-microglobulin, CD4 lymphocyte count, AIDS and death in HIV-positive individuals.
The relationship, in 539 individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), between two prognostic markers, the CD4 count and beta-2-microglobulin (B2M), and the development of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death was investigated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the risk of AIDS or death. In a multivariate model which adjusted for demographic factors and treatment, the most recent measurements of B2M (relative hazard (RH) 1.37 per g/l higher) and CD4 count (RH 2.17 per log-unit lower) were both significantly associated with the development of AIDS. Similarly, in a multivariate model which additionally adjusted for the development of AIDS as a time dependent covariate, there was a strong relationship with risk of death for the most recent measurements of B2M (RH 1.34 per g/l higher), and CD4 lymphocyte count (RH 1.91 per log-unit lower). A difference in the level of B2M could be used among patients with similar CD4 counts as an indicator of increased risk of progression to AIDS or death. Using the most recent values of these markers provides a better estimate of the risk of AIDS or death, compared to the more common method of analysis, where baseline values of the markers are used.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Is there a general tendency for CD4 lymphocyte decline to speed up during human immunodeficiency virus infection? Evidence from the Italian Seroconversion Study.
It has been suggested that the rate of CD4 cell decline accelerates in parallel with decreasing numbers of cells; however, the statistical literature suggests the opposite. CD4 cells were counted about every 6 months in a cohort of 1264 human immunodeficiency virus-infected subjects (the Italian Seroconversion Study cohort). Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the time for CD4 cells to decline by 100 cells/mm3, conditional on reaching predefined levels. In addition, CD4 cell counts were modeled as a function of time since seroconversion in individuals with > or = 5 counts. Kaplan-Meier survival times for a 100 cell/mm3 decrease in CD4 cells increased as lower counts were reached (log rank test, P < .001). The shape of the overall fitted curve of the CD4 cell counts does not suggest an increasing rate of decline. Data from the Italian Seroconversion Study cohort do not show a general tendency for accelerating CD4 cell decline in association with lower counts.
CD4 Lymphocyte Count↗
Survival of AIDS patients according to type of AIDS-defining event. The AIDS in Europe Study Group.
BACKGROUND: There are known to be wide differences in the prognosis of patients with a diagnosis of AIDS. In this study of 6578 patients with AIDS form 17 European centres, we develop a ranking of AIDS-defining illnesses, and determine how well this ranking holds after adjustment for potential confounding variables. METHODS: Survival from each AIDS-defining event was calculated and ranked using Kaplan-Meier estimation of median survival. Cox proportional hazards models with each disease modelled as a time dependant covariate were used to determine the risk of death after each diagnosis, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Median survival after an initial AIDS-defining diagnosis of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy and malignant lymphoma was particularly poor (2 and 5 months respectively), while the longest median survival occurred after initial AIDS-defining illnesses of Kaposi's sarcoma and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (17 and 22 months respectively) Patients diagnosed with a primary brain lymphoma had shorter median survival times than patients with a peripheral lymphoma (median survival of 1 month and 4 months respectively P < 0.0001). In general, median survival in patients with cutaneous Kaposi's sarcoma (skin, oral) was between two and four times longer than patients with systemic involvement The ranking of diseases was found to be generally similar after adjustment for all potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: AIDS-defining events can be grouped into three categories with median survival after diagnosis of < 6 months. 6-12 months and > 12 months. The assigned ranking of disease would not be altered by prognostic factors such as age or CD4 lymphocyte count. These results have important implications in the design of clinical trials and patient management.
AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
The association between hepatitis C virus genotype and human immunodeficiency virus disease progression in a cohort of hemophilic men.
Patients coinfected with both hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have more rapid progression of HCV infection; however, little is known about the effect of coinfection with HCV on the progression of HIV disease. This study assessed the association between infection with different HCV genotypes on progression to AIDS and death in a cohort of men with hemophilia. Patients infected with HCV type 1 experienced a more rapid progression to both AIDS (P = .009) and death (P = .007) than did those infected with other types. This effect was largely independent of age at seroconversion, hemophilia diagnosis, and changes in CD4 cell count over the follow-up period. These results suggest an association between HCV genotype and progression of HIV disease, which, if confirmed, could have important implications for the treatment and care of patients coinfected with both HIV and HCV.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Correspondence between the effect of zidovudine plus lamivudine on plasma HIV level/CD4 lymphocyte count and the incidence of clinical disease in infected individuals. North American Lamivudine HIV Working Group.
OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether apparently beneficial changes in plasma HIV RNA level and CD4 lymphocyte count that are induced by antiretroviral therapy are associated with a corresponding clinical benefit. METHODS: For 620 patients in two randomized, double-blind trials of lamivudine (3TC) and zidovudine (ZDV) plasma HIV RNA and CD4 lymphocyte count changes were compared in patients randomized to 3TC plus ZDV and patients randomized to other treatment arms. The effect of therapy on the HIV RNA level and CD4 count was compared with the effect of therapy on clinical endpoints over the same time period. RESULTS: Median baseline values for all subjects were 42 420 copies/ml for HIV RNA and 277 x 10(6)/l for CD4 count. During the trial a significantly lower HIV RNA level and higher CD4 count was sustained in the ZDV/3TC group compared with the other group, with a difference in the median area under the curve from baseline per month of follow-up of 0.38 log10 copies/ml HIV RNA and 0.18 log2 x 10(6)/l CD4 cells (P < 0.001 in each case). For patients who were initially asymptomatic or in CDC stage B, the adjusted relative hazard (RH) of AIDS for a twofold lower CD4 count was 3.14 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.44-6.83] and for a 10-fold higher HIV RNA level was 3.22 (1.20-8.59). The RH progression to AIDS expected with ZDV/3TC compared with the control treatments, given the observed effects of treatment on CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels, is 0.52, whereas the observed value was 0.16 (0.03-0.74). After adjustment for HIV RNA and CD4 changes over time the observed RH of progression to AIDS for ZDV/3TC treatment compared with controls was increased to 0.36 and was no longer significant (95% CI, 0.07-1.85). CONCLUSION: In this analysis of two trials, the effects of ZDV/3TC in reducing plasma HIV RNA and raising peripheral blood CD4 counts were associated with concurrent clinical benefits and the effect of treatment on these markers could account for at least part of the clinical benefits of therapy that were observed.
Anti-HIV Agents↗
Increased losses of CD4+CD45RA+ cells in late stages of HIV infection is related to increased risk of death: evidence from a cohort of 347 HIV-infected individuals.
OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in the distribution of CD4+CD45RA+ (naive) and CD4+CD45RO+ (memory) lymphocytes in various stages of HIV infection and the effect of these changes on disease progression. DESIGN AND METHODS: Expression of CD45RA+ and CD45RO+ on CD4+ lymphocytes was analysed by flow cytometry in a prospectively followed cohort of 300 HIV-infected individuals (median follow-up time, 2.90 years; range, 0.02-4.54 years) and in a group of 102 age- and sex-matched uninfected controls. Survival analysis was performed considering AIDS development and death as endpoints. RESULTS: The median CD4+CD45RA+/CD45RO+ ratio was 1.3 (25-75% quartiles, 0.9-2.4) in controls; it was increased to 1.8 (1.1-2.5) in 40 HIV-infected individuals with CD4+ cell counts > 500 x 10(6)/l (P < 0.05); it was similar at 1.4 (0.8-2.0) in 106 HIV-infected individuals with CD4+ cell counts of 200-500 x 10(6)/l; and it was decreased to 0.9 (0.5-1.4) in 154 HIV-infected individuals with CD4+ cell counts < 200 x 10(6)/l (P < 10[-6]). When fitted in a Cox model adjusting for the total number of CD4+ cells and age a lower concentration of CD4+CD45RA+ cells was associated with an increased risk of dying. The concentration of CD4+CD45RO+ cells was not significantly associated with AIDS or death in age- and CD4+ cell count-adjusted Cox models. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms a selective loss of memory CD4+ cells early in HIV infection followed by increased loss of naive CD4+ cells in later stages of the infection. The loss of naive CD4+ cells seems to be important in the pathogenesis of terminal HIV infection.
CD4 Antigens↗
Investigating temporal changes in the rate of HIV progression: challenges and limitations.
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Disease Progression↗
HIV-1 dynamics after transient antiretroviral therapy: implications for pathogenesis and clinical management.
Simple models of CD4 lymphocyte interactions with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) lead to the hypothesis that progression of HIV infection involves an increase in viral replicative capacity, due either to changes in the virus or in the host environment, or both. In order to consider how changes in plasma virus load after transient, potent antiretroviral therapy can be used to test the above hypothesis--a simple mathematical model that encompasses the processes of (1) arrival of new CD4 lymphocytes, (2) death/removal of these cells by HIV-independent mechanisms, (3) infection of susceptible CD4 lymphocytes by HIV, and (4) death/removal of infected cells was investigated. This showed that the in vivo rate of increase in plasma virus load immediately after transient therapy provides a measure of the viral replicative capacity. Thus, the hypothesis that progression of HIV infection involves an increase in viral replicative capacity can be tested by measuring this viral growth rate in patients with high CD4 counts and in patients with low CD4 counts. Studies should thus investigate dynamics of changes in virus levels after stopping antiretroviral therapy and, in particular, measure rates of increase in virus in patients at high and low CD4 counts. In practice, such data may assist in therapeutic management of patients with HIV infection.
Anti-HIV Agents↗
The incubation period of AIDS.
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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Serum beta 2-microglobulin at HIV-1 seroconversion as a predictor of severe immunodeficiency during 10 years of followup.
In order to examine the relevance of early immune activation to the long-term course of HIV infection, we evaluated the ability of the serum beta 2-microglobulin level measured in 63 haemophiliacs on average 4.9 months from HIV seroconversion to predict the rate of development of server immunodeficiency (CD4) lymphocyte count 50/mm3) or AIDS over the following 10 years. Patients with higher beta 2-microglobulin values tended to develop severe immunodeficiency/AIDS more rapidly than those with lower levels (relative risk 1.68 per 1 mg/L increase; 95% CI 1.26-2.26; p = 0.0004). Older patients also progressed more rapidly, and these two factors acted independently (relative risk 1.65 per 1 mg/L increase; 95% CI 1.21-2.72; p = 0.002 for beta 2-microglobulin and 1.22 per 10 years; 95% CI 1.01-1.48; p = 0.04 for age). These results provide further evidence that the long-term course of HIV infection can, to some extent, be predicted soon after infection. Older patients with high beta 2-microglobulin levels warrant close monitoring and consideration for early antiretroviral therapy.
Adolescent↗
Life expectancy in men who have never smoked and those who have smoked continuously: 15 year follow up of large cohort of middle aged British men.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the life expectancy in a representative sample of men who have never smoked and of those who have smoked all their adult lives. DESIGN: 15 year follow up of a large representative cohort of British men in the British regional heart study and use of national mortality statistics for 1992. SUBJECTS: 7735 middle aged British men aged 40-59 at the time of screening (between 1978 and 1980). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes and from smoking related causes. RESULTS: 1624 men had never smoked at the time of screening and did not take up smoking during the study. 127 of them died during follow up. 3151 men began smoking before they were 30 and were still smoking at the time of screening. Of these, 751 had stopped smoking five years after screening; they were excluded from the analysis five years after the date they had stopped. 560 of the lifelong smokers died during follow up. When study estimates were combined with those from national mortality statistics for men aged 20-40, only an estimated 42% (95% confidence interval 36% to 50%) of lifelong smokers alive at the age of 20 would be alive at 73, compared with 78% (74% to 82%) of lifelong non-smokers. CONCLUSION: These estimates present the effects of smoking on mortality in a way that is easily communicated to patients and the general public in health promotion initiatives.
Adult↗
Passive smoking and health: should we believe Philip Morris's "experts"?
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Advertising↗
Category of exposure to HIV and age in the progression to AIDS: longitudinal study of 1199 people with known dates of seroconversion. HIV Italian Seroconversion Study Group.
OBJECTIVES: To determine whether rate of development of AIDS is affected by category of exposure to HIV and whether the more rapid development found in older subjects persists for each exposure category. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of people with known date of seroconversion to HIV. SETTING: 16 HIV treatment centres throughout Italy. SUBJECTS: 1199 people infected with HIV through use of injected drugs, homosexual sex, or heterosexual sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AIDS as defined by 1987 definition of Centers for Disease Control (including and excluding neoplasms) and by 1993 European definition. RESULTS: 225 subjects (18.8%) progressed to AIDS (Centers for Disease Control 1987 definition) during median follow up of 5.8 years. Univariate analyses showed more rapid progression to AIDS for older subjects compared with younger subjects and for homosexual men compared with other exposure categories. The age effect was of similar size in each exposure category and in men and women. In a bivariate model with age and exposure categories simultaneously included as covariates, differences by exposure category disappeared for use of injected drugs and heterosexual sex compared with homosexual sex (relative hazards 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.45) and 1.07 (0.70 to 1.64) respectively), while the age effect remained (relative hazard 1.55 (1.32 to 1.83) for 10 year increase in age). Analyses using the other definitions for AIDS did not appreciably change these results. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of differences in rate of development of AIDS by exposure category, while there was a strong tendency for more rapid development in older subjects for all three groups. This supports the view that external cofactors do not play major role in AIDS pathogenesis but that age is of fundamental importance.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Will we ever know when to treat HIV infection?
Confidence in the efficacy of using antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV infection has grown in the past year as a result of the prolonged survival of those randomly allocated to receive an additional drug in comparative controlled trials. HIV remains, however, the only serious infectious disease for which antimicrobial treatment is deliberately delayed. This is because infected subjects can often be symptomless for more than a decade in the absence of any treatment, and results from trials with the nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitor zidovudine have failed to show any evidence for extended survival in those beginning treatment early compared with those who deferred treatment. The new confidence in currently available treatments, and in the prospects for new ones, inevitably leads to renewed questioning of the current strategy of waiting for signs of immune deficiency before electing to intervene. A new randomised controlled trial comparing strategies of early and deferred treatment is required to assess whether the time has come for intervention immediately after HIV has been diagnosed.
Antiviral Agents↗