Maternal serum alphafetoprotein screening for open neural tube defects: revised statistical parameters.
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Female↗
Biomedical subjects
A K Hackshaw
Publications and source records attributed to A K Hackshaw.
Assay precision of serum alpha fetoprotein in antenatal screening for neural tube defects and Down's syndrome.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of current serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) assays on the performance of screening for open neural tube defects and Down's syndrome. METHODS: Maternal serum samples, collected between weeks 15 and 22 from 470 singleton pregnancies without neural tube defects or Down's syndrome, were assayed for AFP using an automated fluorometric immunoassay. The samples had been assayed for AFP using an in house radioimmunoassay with a lower precision ten years before. The variance of AFP using the radioimmunoassay was compared with that using the current fluorometric assay and then used to estimate the detection rates and false positive rates for neural tube defect and Down's syndrome screening. RESULTS: Current serum AFP assays are more precise. Using a cut off level of 2.5 multiples of the median, the false positive rate in screening for anencephaly and open spina bifida was 0.8% with the new assay compared with 2% using the previous assay. When screening for Down's syndrome, the false positive rate is reduced by about one percentage point without loss of detection. CONCLUSION: Improvements in the precision of maternal serum AFP measurement have led to small but useful improvements in screening for open neural tube defects and Down's syndrome. Published estimates of screening performance using such modern assays can be revised accordingly.
Anencephaly↗
Revised distribution parameters for serum markers for trisomy 18.
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Biomarkers↗
When can a risk factor be used as a worthwhile screening test?
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False Positive Reactions↗
Integrated screening for Down's syndrome based on tests performed during the first and second trimesters.
BACKGROUND: Both first-trimester screening and second-trimester screening for Down's syndrome are effective means of selecting women for chorionic-villus sampling or amniocentesis, but there is uncertainty about which screening method should be used in practice. We propose a new screening method in which measurements obtained during both trimesters are integrated to provide a single estimate of a woman's risk of having a pregnancy affected by Down's syndrome. METHODS: We used data from published studies of various screening methods employed during the first and second trimesters. The first-trimester screening consisted of measurement of serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A in 77 pregnancies affected by Down's syndrome and 383 unaffected pregnancies and measurements of nuchal translucency obtained by ultrasonography in 326 affected and 95,476 unaffected pregnancies. The second-trimester tests were various combinations of measurements of serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated estriol, human chorionic gonadotropin, and inhibin A in 77 affected and 385 unaffected pregnancies. RESULTS: When we used a risk of 1 in 120 or greater as the cutoff to define a positive result on the integrated screening test, the rate of detection of Down's syndrome was 85 percent, with a false positive rate of 0.9 percent. To achieve the same rate of detection, current screening tests would have higher false positive rates (5 to 22 percent). If the integrated test were to replace the triple test (measurements of serum alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated estriol, and human chorionic gonadotropin), currently used with a 5 percent false positive rate, for screening during the second trimester, the detection rate would be higher 85 percent vs. 69 percent), with a reduction of four fifths in the number of invasive diagnostic procedures and consequent losses of normal fetuses. CONCLUSIONS: The integrated test detects more cases of Down's syndrome with a much lower false positive rate than the best currently available test.
Adolescent↗
Maternal serum prostate-specific antigen and Down syndrome in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. International Prenatal Screening Research Group.
It has been suggested that high levels of maternal serum prostate-specific (PSA) may be associated with fetal Down syndrome. We retrieved stored blood samples from 102 singleton Down syndrome pregnancies at 8-14 weeks' gestation and 99 at 15-22 weeks' gestation, together with samples from five unaffected singleton control pregnancies matched for gestational age. PSA was measured using an ultrasensitive assay. Contrary to earlier reports, PSA levels were similar in affected and unaffected pregnancies in both the first and second trimester of pregnancy; 1.1 and 0.9 multiple of the normal median, respectively, in affected pregnancies. There was no indication that PSA would be a useful screening marker.
Down Syndrome↗
Nuchal translucency and trisomy 18.
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Chromosomes, Human, Pair 8↗
Lung cancer and passive smoking.
The evidence from epidemiological studies, studies of biochemical markers of exposure and toxicological studies, confirm that there is a causal association between the risk of lung cancer and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. Nonsmokers can inhale and metabolize carcinogens in tobacco smoke and other markers of environmental tobacco smoke inhalation (nicotine and cotinine) are raised in nonsmokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. In epidemiological studies of women who are lifelong nonsmokers, there is a statistically significant excess risk of lung cancer (24%, 95% confidence interval 13-36%) from exposure to environmental tobacco smoke from the spouse and this increases with the number of cigarettes smoked and duration of the marriage. Misclassification bias (women who smoke but claim to be lifelong nonsmokers) and dietary confounding are unlikely to explain the association; after adjustment for both, the risk of lung cancer from environmental tobacco smoke exposure was still statistically significant. In any event, their effects on the risk of lung cancer in the epidemiological studies are balanced out by allowing for background exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (that is, other than from the spouse) in the reference group; the excess risk after allowing for all three is an estimated 26% (95% confidence interval 7-47%), similar to the adjusted figure of 24%. In Britain, about one in every six nonsmokers are exposed to tobacco smoke from smokers in the home. Passive smoking is an avoidable cause of mortality and morbidity. Prevention strategies to reduce the amount of cigarette smoking in public places should be part of public health policy.
Biomarkers↗
The distribution of nuchal translucency at 10-13 weeks of pregnancy.
There is a need for a simple method of expressing nuchal translucency measurement in early pregnancy that will allow for gestational age and be useful in screening for Down's syndrome. To achieve this objective, we conducted a prospective study of 561 women with singleton pregnancies that were not affected by Down's syndrome at 10-13 weeks of gestation. Nuchal translucency measurements and crown rump length measurements were determined. Nuchal translucency measurement increased by about 17 per cent per week. Expressing the result as a multiple of the median (MOM) nuchal translucency for a given crown rump length allowed for this increase with gestational age and yielded a distribution of values that was approximately Gaussian. About 96 per cent of values lay between 0.5 and 2.0 MOM. The variance and therefore the false-positive rate of nuchal translucency were significantly reduced by recording several measurements and using the average: for example, the false-positive rate reduced from 8.3 per cent to 5.0 per cent if the average of six measurements were used instead of one--a potential 40 per cent reduction in the false-positive rate if the test were used in screening. Estimating the distribution of nuchal translucency in MOM values will assist in specifying the statistical parameters to be used in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome and the use of repeated nuchal translucency measurements is expected to have a useful effect on reducing the screening false-positive rate at a given MOM cut-off level.
Adult↗
The accumulated evidence on lung cancer and environmental tobacco smoke.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. DESIGN: Analysis of 37 published epidemiological studies of the risk of lung cancer (4626 cases) in non-smokers who did and did not live with a smoker. The risk estimate was compared with that from linear extrapolation of the risk in smokers using seven studies of biochemical markers of tobacco smoke intake. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers according to whether the spouse currently smoked or had never smoked. RESULTS: The excess risk of lung cancer was 24% (95% confidence interval 13% to 36%) in non-smokers who lived with a smoker (P < 0.001). Adjustment for the effects of bias (positive and negative) and dietary confounding had little overall effect; the adjusted excess risk was 26% (7% to 47%). The dose-response relation of the risk of lung cancer with both the number of cigarettes smoked by the spouse and the duration of exposure was significant. The excess risk derived by linear extrapolation from that in smokers was 19%, similar to the direct estimate of 26%. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological and biochemical evidence on exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, with the supporting evidence of tobacco specific carcinogens in the blood and urine of non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, provides compelling confirmation that breathing other people's tobacco smoke is a cause of lung cancer.
Adenocarcinoma↗
A meta-analysis of cigarette smoking, bone mineral density and risk of hip fracture: recognition of a major effect.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the magnitude and importance of the relation between smoking, bone mineral density, and risk of hip fracture according to age. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of 29 published cross sectional studies reporting the difference in bone density in 2156 smokers and 9705 non-smokers according to age, and of 19 cohort and case-control studies recording 3889 hip fractures reporting risk in smokers relative to non-smokers. RESULTS: In premenopausal women bone density was similar in smokers and non-smokers. Postmenopausal bone loss was greater in current smokers than non-smokers, bone density diminishing by about an additional 2% for every 10 year increase in age, with a difference of 6% at age 80. In current smokers relative to non-smokers the risk of hip fracture was similar at age 50 but greater thereafter by an estimated 17% at age 60, 41% at 70, 71% at 80, and 108% at 90. These estimates of relative risk by age, derived directly from a regression analysis of the studies of smoking and hip fracture, were close to estimates using the difference in bone density between smokers and non-smokers and the association between bone density and risk of hip fracture. The estimated cumulative risk of hip fracture in women in England was 19% in smokers and 12% in non-smokers to age 85; 37% and 22% to age 90. Among all women, one hip fracture in eight is attributable to smoking. Limited data in men suggest a similar proportionate effect of smoking as in women. The association was not explained by smokers being thinner, younger at menopause, and exercising less nor by actions of smoking on oestrogen, but smoking may have a direct action on bone. CONCLUSIONS: Hip fracture in old age is a major adverse effect of smoking after the menopause. The cumulative excess bone loss over decades is substantial, increasing the lifetime risk of hip fracture by about half.
Adult↗
Cigarette smoking, sex hormones and bone density in women.
It is known that among women over the age of 65, bone mineral density is lower, and the risk of hip fracture higher, in smokers than non-smokers. We report a study in 1334 health pre- and post-menopausal women aged 35-64 years, to determine whether this effect can be attributed to lower oestrogen levels in smokers. Among 676 premenopausal women forearm bone density was no lower in smokers (95% confidence interval 1% lower, 4% higher). Among 543 postmenopausal women who had not used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for more than a year there was no statistically significant difference, but the lower confidence interval was consistent with a lower bone density in older smokers (by 8% at age 55-59, 16% at age 60-64). Measurements in 194 postmenopausal women not taking HRT showed that oestrone and oestradiol were similar in smokers and non-smokers, as were cortisol and FSH, LH and prolactin. Meta-analysis of the present study and previous studies confirmed significantly higher levels in smokers of the androgens DHEAS (by 37%) and androstenedione (by 34%). Oestrogens were no lower in smokers, and the lower confidence limit excluded more than a trivial effect of smoking in lowering oestrogen. These results indicate that the recognised lower bone density in elderly smokers cannot be explained by an effect of smoking on oestrogen, since in premenopausal women bone density is no lower in smokers and in postmenopausal women oestrogens are no lower in smokers. The data suggest a balance between higher androgen levels but lower rates of conversion of androgens to oestrogens in smokers. The effect of smoking on bone may be due to impaired response of bone and other target organs to oestrogen, or to actions independent of oestrogen.
Adult↗
Combining ultrasound and biochemistry in first-trimester screening for Down's syndrome.
Data on pregnancies with and without Down's syndrome between 10 and 14 weeks of pregnancy were used to determine the performance of combined ultrasound and biochemical markers in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome. We used three datasets: one published by Pandya et al. (1995) on nuchal translucency measurement in 86 Down's syndrome pregnancies; one published by Wald et al. (1996a) on free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) in 77 affected pregnancies and 385 unaffected pregnancies; and the third from Schuchter et al. on 561 unaffected pregnancies with nuchal translucency measurement. Combining the data from these three datasets showed that screening between 10 and 14 weeks by combining the serum markers with nuchal translucency measurement had a detection rate of 80 per cent for a 5 per cent false-positive rate, better than maternal age with two serum markers (62 per cent for 5 per cent) or maternal age with nuchal translucency measurement (63 per cent for 5 per cent). At this time in pregnancy, it appears that screening using the combined test is better than second-trimester serum screening (76 per cent for 5 per cent), though these estimates do not allow for any association between the markers and spontaneous fetal loss, an issue that needs to be clarified by further research. Meanwhile, these results provide a reasonable working estimate of screening performance using different combinations of these markers.
Chorionic Gonadotropin↗
Risk estimation in Down's syndrome screening.
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Chorionic Gonadotropin↗
Environmental tobacco smoke.
Environmental tobacco smoke is an important contaminant of indoor air. For a non-smoker living with a smoker the exposure is equivalent to about 1% of that from actively smoking 20 cigarettes a day (based on plasma cotinine). There is strong and consistent evidence that passive smoking increases the risk of lung cancer. It is estimated that there is an increase in risk of 24% (95% confidence interval 11-38%) compared to unexposed non-smokers, and several hundred lung cancer deaths per year in Britain are attributable to environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Passive smoking is associated with an increase in risk of chronic respiratory disease in adults of 25% (10-43%), and increases the risk of acute respiratory illness in children, by 50-100%. It is likely that passive smoking increases the risk of ischaemic heart disease, and that exposure in pregnancy lowers birthweight, but there is inconsistency between different estimates of the magnitude of risk. The overall hazard is sufficient to justify measures to restrict smoking in public places and workplaces, and to discourage people from smoking in their homes.
Adult↗
Cigarette smoking: an epidemiological overview.
The detailed mortality and morbidity statistics on smoking tend to conceal the overall impact of the habit on health. About 3 million people die each year from smoking in economically developed countries, half of them before the age of 70. Cancers of eight sites are recognized as being caused by smoking--lung cancer almost entirely and the others (upper respiratory, bladder, pancreas, oesophagus, stomach, kidney, leukaemia) to a substantial extent. Six other potentially fatal diseases are also judged to be caused by smoking: respiratory heart disease, chronic obstructive lung disease, stroke, pneumonia, aortic aneurysm and ischaemic heart disease, the most common cause of death in economically developed countries. Non-fatal diseases, such as peripheral vascular disease, cataracts, hip fracture, and periodontal disease, which cause appreciable disability, cost and inconvenience are also caused by smoking. In pregnancy, smoking increases the risk of limb reduction defects, spontaneous abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and low birth weight. While there are some diseases for which smoking shows a protective effect, the 'benefits' of these are negligible in relation to the illness and premature mortality caused by smoking. About 20% of all deaths in developed countries are caused by smoking; an enormous human cost which can be completely avoided.
Aged↗
Empirical validation of risk screening for Down's syndrome.
OBJECTIVE: To validate individual risk estimates in antenatal serum screening for Down's syndrome. METHODS: Women screened for Down's syndrome using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) with maternal age (the triple test) or AFP, uE3, free beta subunit and free alpha subunit of hCG with maternal age (the quadruple test) were grouped according to their predicted risk of having an affected pregnancy. The mean predicted risk in each category was then compared with the observed prevalence based on the number of affected and unaffected pregnancies in each category. SUBJECTS: About 100,000 pregnant women screened for Down's syndrome from 1989 to 1995. RESULTS: There was close agreement between the predicted term risk and the prevalence at birth for both the triple test and the quadruple test. For example, with the quadruple test the predicted risk in the highest risk group was 1 in 3.3 and the prevalence was 1 in 2.6; in the lowest risk group these were 1 in 3000 and 1 in 2300 respectively. CONCLUSION: Risk estimates based on multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome are accurate. The technique used to demonstrate this is simple and offers a useful empirical check on screening performance.
Adult↗
Repeat maternal serum testing for Down's syndrome screening using multiple markers with special reference to free alpha and free beta-hCG.
To determine the effect of routine repeat testing in serum screening for Down's syndrome, we compared estimates of the detection and false-positive rates. Five serum markers were measured--alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and its two subunits, free alpha and free beta-hCG. First and repeat test marker levels were available from 142 women whose samples had been routinely collected and stored in an antenatal serum bank. Different repeat testing policies were compared for various combinations of the markers. If all women had repeat tests using the four markers AFP, uE3, and free alpha and free beta-hCG, the detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate was 69 per cent compared with 65 per cent if no women were repeated. Policies of repeating selected women gave similar results. The small gain in screening performance with repeat testing performed routinely is not worthwhile. If a woman does happen to have a repeat test, her risk estimate should, however, be based on both results, not just the second.
Biomarkers↗