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A J Saah

Publications and source records attributed to A J Saah.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1999

Cell-associated infectious HIV-1 viral load as a predictor of clinical progression and survival among HIV-1 infected injection drug users and homosexual men.

Cell-associated infectious HIV-1 viral load was measured using semi-quantitative microculture techniques to determine its predictive capability for progression to AIDS or survival among HIV-1 infected injecting drug users (IDU) and homosexual men (HM). The authors followed 296 IDU and 240 HM from February 1992 through September 1995 for: (i) death, (ii) AIDS, and (iii) AIDS or bacterial infection. At baseline, viral load was quantified using microculture techniques to determine infectious units per million peripheral blood mononuclear cells (IUPM). Data were analyzed using standard statistical methods for survival analysis. Of the 536 total participants, 106 died (20%), and 98 of the 481 AIDS-free participants developed AIDS (20%). The relative hazard of AIDS for a viral load of > or = 100 IUPM, relative to a negative culture (0 IUPM), was 6.73 (95% CI: 2.23-20.3) after adjusting for risk group, initial CD4+ count, and other covariates. The adjusted relative hazard of death for a viral load of > or = 100 IUPM vs. 0 IUPM was 2.57 (95% CI: 0.97 6.80). Viral load predicted time to death within the < 200 cells/ul CD4+ stratum. The predictive value of viral load on HIV-1 progression did not vary by risk group. These data show that cell associated infectious HIV-1 viral load was significantly predictive of progression across risk groups for AIDS and death among those severely immune compromised.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
PubMed1998

Association of HLA profiles with early plasma viral load, CD4+ cell count and rate of progression to AIDS following acute HIV-1 infection. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Host genetic factors, such as HLA alleles, play an important role in mediating the course of HIV-1 disease progression through largely undefined mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of HLA markers with HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load and other factors associated with course of disease progression in HIV-1 infection. DESIGN AND METHODS: A group of 139 HIV-1 seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study had been typed for a variety of HLA markers. HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load was measured from frozen plasma specimens obtained approximately 9 months following seroconversion. CD4+ cell counts were available from the same study visit. Statistical analysis was performed using survival techniques and linear regression models to quantify the relative associations of an HLA score profile, HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load, CD4+ cell count and age with each other and with rate of progression to AIDS and death. RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards models showed statistically significant differences in time to AIDS by HLA score profile category per unit increase [relative hazard (RH), 0.64; P < 0.0001], HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load per 10-fold increase (RH, 2.04; P = 0.0003), and CD4+ cell count per 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase (RH, 0.90; P = 0.02). Multivariate linear regression showed that viral load was 39% lower (P = 0.0001) for each unit increase in HLA score profile and 13% lower (P = 0.002) for each 100 cell (x 10(6)/l) increase in CD4+ cell count. CONCLUSION: The means by which the HLA score profile influences the time to AIDS is probably through immunologic responses that affect the rate of HIV-1 replication, as manifested by the HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load during the first 6-12 months following acute infection.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1998

Human papillomavirus, anal squamous intraepithelial lesions, and human immunodeficiency virus in a cohort of gay men.

Cross-sectional associations between human papillomavirus (HPV), anal squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were studied in a cohort of gay men. HPV DNA was detected by generic and type-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) probes and hybrid capture assay (HC). HPV virus load was estimated by HC relative light unit (RLU) ratio. HPV prevalence, number of HPV types detected, and HC RLU ratios were each greater in HIV-positive than HIV-negative participants. Further, among HIV-positive men, HC RLU ratio was inversely associated with CD4 cell count. SIL was more frequent in HIV-positive participants, particularly those with a CD4 cell count <200/microL and was positively associated with HPV. Men with a high HC RLU ratio were nearly 3 times more likely to have SIL than were those both PCR- and HC-negative. These data support that HIV augments HPV-associated anal disease in this population.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

[Sensitivity and specificity revisited: significance of the terms in analytic and diagnostic language].

Imprecise usage of the terms "sensitivity" and "specificity" produces confusion in the diagnostic use sophisticated laboratory test results. "Analytical sensitivity" represents the smallest amount of substance in a sample that can accurately be measured by an assay. "Analytical specificity refers to the ability of an assay to measure one particular organism or substance, rather than others, in a sample. An assay's analytical sensitivity and analytical specificity are distinct from that assay's clinical diagnostic sensitivity and diagnostic specificity. Diagnostic "sensitivity" is the percentage of persons who have a given disorder who are identified by the assay as positive for the disorder. High analytical sensitivity does not guarantee acceptable diagnostic sensitivity. "Diagnostic sensitivity" is the percentage of persons who do not have a given condition who are identified by the assay as negative for the condition. False-positive reactions occur because of sample contamination and diminish the diagnostic specificity of the assay. The terms "sensitivity" and "specificity" should be used with the requisite adjectives because the "diagnostic" and the "analytical" meanings of these terms are very different.

Diagnosis↗
PubMed1997

Solar ultraviolet radiation exposure does not appear to exacerbate HIV infection in homosexual men. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of sun exposure on HIV progression. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey nested within a longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1155 white HIV-seronegative and 496 white HIV-seropositive homosexual men, of whom 142 seroconverted during the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: T-helper lymphocyte decline and AIDS. RESULTS: No positive correlation was found between the development of AIDS or loss of T-helper lymphocytes and (i) phenotypic characteristics associated with enhanced ultraviolet radiation (UVR) sensitivity (hair or eye color, skin type), or (ii) reported UVR exposure (sun lamp/tanning bed use, frequency of beach vacations, sunscreen use), or (iii) composite score of UVR sensitivity and exposure history. The composite scores and individual measures of risk were not correlated with rate of T-helper lymphocyte decline (slope) based upon rank correlation (correlation coefficient, 0.04; P = 0.32). In fact, individuals purposefully seeking the sun had slower T-helper lymphocyte declines. Sensitivity to UVR was also not significantly associated with AIDS [odds ratio (OR), 1.11 per unit of higher composite score; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-1.88; P = 0.63]. Among individuals who were HIV-infected at baseline, those who have been purposely seeking sun exposure were less likely to have AIDS (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.39-1.11; P = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that phenotypic characteristics of high UVR sensitivity and exposure are not highly correlated with decline in T-helper lymphocyte count or with progression to AIDS.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Heterozygosity for a defective gene for CC chemokine receptor 5 is not the sole determinant for the immunologic and virologic phenotype of HIV-infected long-term nonprogressors.

HIV-1-infected long-term nonprogressors are a heterogeneous group of individuals with regard to immunologic and virologic markers of HIV-1 disease. CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) has recently been identified as an important coreceptor for HIV-1 entry into CD4+ T cells. A mutant allele of CCR5 confers a high degree of resistance to HIV-1 infection in homozygous individuals and partial protection against HIV disease progression in heterozygotes. The frequency of CCR5 heterozygotes is increased among HIV-1- infected long-term nonprogressors compared with progressors; however, the host defense mechanisms responsible for nonprogression in CCR5 heterozygotes are unknown. We hypothesized that nonprogressors who were heterozygous for the mutant CCR5 gene might define a subgroup of nonprogressors with higher CD4+ T cell counts and lower viral load compared with CCR5 wild-type nonprogressors. However, in a cohort of 33 HIV-1-infected long-term nonprogressors, those who were heterozygous for the mutant CCR5 gene were indistinguishable from CCR5 wild-type nonprogressors with regard to all measured immunologic and virologic parameters. Although epidemiologic data support a role for the mutant CCR5 allele in the determination of the state of long-term nonprogression in some HIV-1- infected individuals, it is not the only determinant. Furthermore, long-term nonprogressors with the wild-type CCR5 genotype are indistinguishable from heterozygotes from an immunologic and virologic standpoint.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Plasma viral load and CD4+ lymphocytes as prognostic markers of HIV-1 infection.

BACKGROUND: The rate of disease progression among persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) varies widely, and the relative prognostic value of markers of disease activity has not been defined. OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical, serologic, cellular, and virologic markers for their ability to predict progression to the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death during a 10-year period. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Four university-based clinical centers participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. PATIENTS: 1604 men infected with HIV-1. MEASUREMENTS: The markers compared were oral candidiasis (thrush) or fever; serum neopterin levels; serum beta 2-microglobulin levels; number and percentage of CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ lymphocytes; and plasma viral load, which was measured as the concentration of HIV-1 RNA found using a sensitive branched-DNA signal-amplification assay. RESULTS: Plasma viral load was the single best predictor of progression to AIDS and death, followed (in order of predictive strength) by CD4+ lymphocyte count and serum neopterin levels, serum beta 2-microglobulin levels, and thrush or fever. Plasma viral load discriminated risk at all levels of CD4+ lymphocyte counts and predicted their subsequent rate of decline. Five risk categories were defined by plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations: 500 copies/mL or less, 501 to 3000 copies/mL, 3001 to 10000 copies/mL, 10001 to 30000 copies/mL, and more than 30000 copies/mL. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who progressed to AIDS within 6 years were seen in the five risk categories: 5.4%, 16.6%, 31.7%, 55.2%, and 80.0%, respectively. Highly significant (P < 0.001) differences in the percentages of participants who died of AIDS within 6 years were also seen in the five risk categories: 0.9%, 6.3%, 18.1%, 34.9%, and 69.5%, respectively. A regression tree incorporating both HIV-1 RNA measurements and CD4+ lymphocyte counts provided better discrimination of outcome than did either marker alone; use of both variables defined categories of risk for AIDS within 6 years that ranged from less than 2% to 98%. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma viral load strongly predicts the rate of decrease in CD4+ lymphocyte count and progression to AIDS and death, but the prognosis of HIV-infected persons is more accurately defined by combined measurement of plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4+ lymphocytes.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1997

"Sensitivity" and "specificity" reconsidered: the meaning of these terms in analytical and diagnostic settings.

Imprecise usage of the terms "sensitivity" and "specificity" produces confusion in the diagnostic use of sophisticated laboratory test results. "Analytical sensitivity" represents the smallest amount of substance in a sample that can accurately be measured by an assay. "Analytical specificity" refers to the ability of an assay to measure on particular organism or substance, rather than others, in a sample. An assay's analytical sensitivity and analytical specificity are distinct from that assay's clinical diagnostic sensitivity and diagnostic specificity. "Diagnostic sensitivity" is the percentage of persons who have a given disorder who are identified by the assay as positive for the disorder. High analytical sensitivity does not guarantee acceptable diagnostic sensitivity. "Diagnostic specificity" is the percentage of persons who do not have a given condition who are identified by the assay as negative for the condition. False-positive reactions occur because of sample contamination and diminish the diagnostic specificity of the assay. The terms "sensitivity" and "specificity" should be used with the requisite adjectives because the "diagnostic" and the "analytical" meanings of these terms are very different.

Diagnosis↗
PubMed1997

Relationship between human immunodeficiency virus-associated dementia and viral load in cerebrospinal fluid and brain.

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA levels were measured with the Nucleic Acid Sequence-Based Amplification (NASBA) assay to determine the relationship with neurological status; 37 subjects with HIV dementia (HIV-D) were compared with 77 with HIV with minor neurological signs (HIV-MCMD) and 93 neurologically normal HIV-seropositive individuals (HIV-NML). The NASBA assay had a lower limit of detection of 100 copies per milliliter. Mean CSF log HIV RNA levels were significantly higher in those with dementia after adjusting for CD4 count and were correlated with dementia severity. Plasma levels did not distinguish comparably immunosuppressed subjects with or without dementia. CSF and plasma RNA levels were significantly intercorrelated for subjects with CD4 counts <200/mm3 and also correlated inversely with CSF beta2-microglobulin. CSF RNA levels were independent of CSF pleocytosis or antiretroviral exposure. Brain RNA levels were consistently higher than CSF but correlated with CSF values for dementia subjects. The NASBA assay can be used reliably to determine HIV RNA levels in CSF, brain, and plasma samples. CSF HIV RNA may be a surrogate marker for brain infection, based on the observed correlation with brain levels. The association between plasma HIV RNA and CSF levels of HIV and beta2-microglobulin suggests that both viral load and CNS immune activation are important determinants of neurological disease.

AIDS Dementia Complex↗
PubMed1997

Hepatitis A among homosexual men and injection drug users: more evidence for vaccination.

As agencies develop guidelines for administering the newly developed hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccine, information is needed regarding the occurrence of HAV infection in groups putatively at risk for the infection. We tested serum samples from 300 injection drug users (IDUs), 300 homosexual males, and 300 blood donors for the presence of total antibody to HAV (anti-HAV). Anti-HAV was detected in 66% of IDUs, 32% of homosexual males, and 14% of blood donors. Anti-HAV was not significantly associated (P > .10) with high-risk drug-using behaviors but was more prevalent among IDUs with annual incomes of <$5,000 (P = .018). The occurrence of anti-HAV increased among homosexual males as the number of sexual partners increased (P < .001) but was similar to the age-adjusted prevalence (30.6%) estimated for the general United States population. IDUs are at increased risk for HAV infection; however, our data suggest that factors related to low socioeconomic status contribute more to the occurrence of HAV infection among IDUs than does injection drug use. IDUs and persons at risk for injection drug use should receive HAV vaccine.

Baltimore↗
PubMed1997

Low serum vitamin B-12 concentrations are associated with faster human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) disease progression.

We conducted a nonconcurrent prospective cohort study to examine associations between serum concentrations of vitamin B-6, vitamin B-12 and folate and the risk of progression to first acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis and CD4+ cell decline to < 2 x 10(8) cells/L. The study population was drawn from a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men in the Baltimore-Washington, DC, area. Eligible subjects were human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-seropositive at study entry and had serum available in the serum repository from their 1984 baseline study visit. Serum micronutrient levels were assessed in 310 subjects. The follow-up period (April 1984 through December 1993) was approximately 9 y. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, participants with low serum vitamin B-12 concentrations (< 120 pmol/L) had significantly shorter AIDS-free time than those with adequate vitamin B-12 concentrations (median AIDS-free time = 4 vs. 8 y, respectively, P = 0.004). This effect persisted in Cox proportional hazards models after adjusting for HIV-1-related symptoms, CD4+ cell count, age, serum albumin, use of antiretroviral therapy before AIDS, frequency of alcohol consumption and serum folate concentration [relative hazard (RH) = 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15-3.10). To further explore the temporal relation between low serum vitamin B-12 concentrations and disease progression, additional analyses were performed excluding subjects with more advanced disease at baseline. In these analyses, the increase in risk of progression to AIDS for those with low serum vitamin B-12 concentrations remained significant (RH = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.13-4.34), providing further evidence that low vitamin B-12 concentrations preceded disease progression. In contrast, low serum concentrations of vitamin B-6 and folate were not associated with either progression to AIDS or decline in CD4+ lymphocyte count. Intervention studies are needed to determine whether correction of low serum vitamin B-12 concentrations in early HIV-1 infection will influence the natural history of disease progression.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Association between serum vitamin A and E levels and HIV-1 disease progression.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between serum vitamin A and E levels and risk of progression to three key outcomes in HIV-1 infection: first AIDS diagnosis, CD4+ cell decline to < 200 cells x 10(6)/l, and mortality. DESIGN: Non-concurrent prospective study. METHODS: Serum levels of vitamins A and E were measured at the enrollment visit of 311 HIV-seroprevalent homo-/bisexual men participating in the Baltimore/ Washington DC site of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative hazard of progression to each outcome over the subsequent 9 years, adjusting for several independent covariates. RESULTS: Men in the highest quartile of serum vitamin E levels (> or = 23.5 mumol/l) showed a 34% decrease in risk of progression to AIDS compared with those in the lowest quartile [relative hazard (RH), 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.41-1.06)]. This effect was statistically significant when comparing the highest quartile of serum vitamin E to the remainder of the cohort (RH, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.45-0.98). Associations between serum vitamin A levels and risk of progression to AIDS were less clear, but vitamin A levels were uniformly in the normal to high range (median = 2.44 mumol/l). Similar trends were observed for each vitamin with mortality as the outcome, but neither vitamin was associated with CD4+ cell decline to < 200 cells x 10(6)/l. Men who reported current use of multivitamin or single vitamin E supplements had significantly higher serum tocopherol levels than those who were not taking supplements (P = 0.0001). Serum retinol levels were unrelated to intake of multivitamin or single vitamin A supplements. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that high serum levels of vitamin E may be associated with slower HIV-1 disease progression, but no relationship was observed between retinol levels and disease progression in this vitamin A-replete population.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1997

Seroreactivity to hepatitis E virus in areas where the disease is not endemic.

If the occurrence of hepatitis E virus antibody (anti-HEV) in regions where the disease is not endemic represents infection, rates may be greater in high-risk populations and behavioral correlates may reflect recognized transmission modes. Serum samples from 300 homosexual males, 300 injection drug users (IDUs), and 300 blood donors from Baltimore, Md., were tested for anti-HEV by enzyme immunoassay. Anti-HEV was found in an unexpectedly high percentage of homosexual men (15.9%) and IDUs (23.0%). However, anti-HEV was present in a similar proportion of blood donors (21.3%) (P > 0.05), while hepatitis A, B, and C virus antibodies were more prevalent in the high-risk groups (P < 0.001). Among homosexual men, anti-HEV was not significantly correlated with a history of hepatitis, high-risk sexual practices, or sexually transmitted infections, in contrast to hepatitis A and B antibodies. Among IDUs, anti-HEV was not significantly associated with a history of hepatitis or high-risk drug-using practices, as was found with hepatitis C antibodies. In a setting without endemic hepatitis E disease, there was no evidence that anti-HEV reflected subclinical infection. Until the basis for HEV seroreactivity in such areas is elucidated, anti-HEV results should be interpreted with caution.

Hepatitis E↗
PubMed1997

Helper T-lymphocyte count. TRAx CD4 test kit versus conventional flow cytometry.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated a newly developed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay system for measuring helper T-lymphocyte count. METHODS: Data from 111 human immunodeficiency virus-infected injection drug users in a cohort study were analyzed by flow cytometry and independent duplicate runs of the TRAx enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: The mean helper T-cell counts were 470, 480, and 506 per microliter by flow cytometry and TRAx runs 1 and 2, respectively. The correlation coefficients for TRAx runs 1 and 2 with the flow cytometry results as the dependent variable were .93 and .91, respectively. A cross-tabulation of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay helper T-lymphocyte counts with flow cytometry counts showed agreement of 71% and 76% when the flow count was between 201 and 500, and 88% and 90% when it was greater than 500 cells per microliter. In those samples with 200 or fewer helper T cells, agreement was 73% and 41% for each TRAx run. CONCLUSIONS: The TRAx enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay system is an acceptable method for measuring helper T-lymphocyte count, but should be recalibrated for better performance at helper T-cell counts below 200 per microliter.

CD4 Lymphocyte Count↗
PubMed1996

Virologic and serologic markers of rapid progression to AIDS after HIV-1 seroconversion.

The association between early virologic and immunologic events after human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and progression of HIV-1 infection to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was studied among 59 homosexual men with documented time of seroconversion. Epidemiologic factors, such as number of lifetime sexual partners, history of sexually transmitted diseases, and other factors, also were studied. All 17 seroconverters in the cohort who developed AIDS within 3 years (rapid progressors = RPs) were compared with 42 men without AIDS for at least 6 years seroconversion (nonrapid progressors = non-RPs). Plasma levels of HIV-1 RNA, p24 antigen, antibodies to HIV-1 structural genes, beta-2 microglobulin, neopterin, and interferon-alpha were measured at four time points: (a) the last seronegative visit, (b) the first seropositive visit, (c) the visit closest to AIDS (or the corresponding visit for the non-RPs) and (d) 6 years after seroconversion (for non-RPs). Up to seroconversion, the RPs had a significantly higher number of lifetime sexual partners than non-RPs (503 versus 171, respectively). At the first seropositive visit, RPs had significantly higher concentrations of plasma HIV-1 RNA (p < 0.01) and prevalence of p24 antigenemia (p < 0.001) and significantly lower levels of antibodies to the HIV-1 gag proteins p17 and p24 (p < 0.01-0.001) compared with non-RPs. These differences increased during follow-up visits. Antibodies to p66 and gp120 were significantly different only at the visit closet to AIDS (p < 0.001), as were beta-2 microglobulin and interferon alpha. These findings suggest that early virologic-immunologic events after HIV-1 infection may determine the rate of progression to AIDS. Anti-gag immune response may prevent rapid progression of HIV-1 disease and should be considered for future vaccine studies.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

Effects of micronutrient intake on survival in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

The authors examined the relation between dietary and supplemental micronutrient intake and subsequent mortality among 281 human immunodeficiency type 1 (HIV-1)-infected participants at the Baltimore, Maryland/Washington, DC, site of the Multicenter Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Cohort Study. Subjects completed a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at their baseline visit in 1984. Levels of daily micronutrient intake were examined in relation to subsequent mortality over the 8-year follow-up period by using multivariate Cox models, adjusting for age, symptoms, CD4+ count, energy intake, and treatment. The highest quartile of intake for each B-group vitamin was independently associated with improved survival: B1 (relative hazard (RH) = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38-0.95), B2 (RH = 0.59, 95% CI 0.38-0.93), B6 (RH = 0.45, 95% CI 0.28-0.73), and niacin (RH = 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.91). In a final model, the third quartile of beta-carotene intake (RH = 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.98) was associated with improved survival, while increasing intakes of zinc were associated with poorer survival. Intakes of B6 supplements at more than twice the recommended dietary allowance were associated with improved survival (RH = 0.60, 95% CI 0.39-0.93), while intakes of B1 and B2 supplements at levels greater than five times the recommended dietary allowance were associated with improved survival (B1: RH = 0.61, 95% CI 0.38-0.98; B2:RH = 0.60, 95% CI 0.37-0.97). Any intake of zinc supplements, however, was associated with poorer survival (RH = 1.49, 95% CI 1.02-2.18). These data support the performance of clinical trials to assess the effects of B-group vitamin supplements on HIV-1-related survival. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal level of zinc intake in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Adult↗
PubMed1996

Survival in HIV-infected patients who have received zidovudine: comparison of combination therapy with sequential monotherapy and continued zidovudine monotherapy. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Among patients who begin receiving zidovudine during intermediate-stage human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, it is unclear whether changing to combination therapy (adding didanosine or zalcitabine) or sequential monotherapy (changing to didanosine or zalcitabine) significantly improves survival. OBJECTIVE: To determine, among patients who began receiving zidovudine during intermediate-stage HIV infection, the differential effects of changing to combination therapy (zidovudine with didanosine or zalcitabine) or sequential monotherapy (with didanosine or zalcitabine) or continuing zidovudine monotherapy. PATIENTS: 1077 HIV-seropositive men in the Multicenter AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) Cohort Study who began receiving zidovudine before an AIDS-defining illness developed. SETTING: University-affiliated clinics in Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Pittsburgh. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study, Treatment groups and important prognostic variables were modeled as time-dependent covariates in Cox proportional hazards models. MEASUREMENTS: Progression to AIDS and death. RESULTS: Compared with patients receiving continued zidovudine monotherapy, patients receiving combination therapy had a 45% improvement in survival (relative risk, 0.55 [95% Cl, 0.41 to 0.74; P < 0.001]) and patients who changed to sequential monotherapy had a 32% improvement in survival (relative risk, 0.68 [Cl, 0.52 to 0.89; P = 0.005]). In the landmark analyses, the median prolongation of survival associated with changing therapy was, at best, 3 to 6 months. Survival curves converged at 3.5 years for the 50 cells/mm3 disease-stage landmark, at 4.4 years for the 100 cells/mm3 landmark and at 4.9 years for the 150 cells/mm3 landmark. Mortality within these periods was 100%, regardless of treatment group or landmark. CONCLUSIONS: For patients who began receiving zidovudine during intermediate-stage disease, changing to either combination therapy or sequential monotherapy was associated with a statistically significant survival benefit compared with continuation of zidovudine monotherapy. The absolute increase in survival was modest, however, and long-term survival remained poor. Simultaneous time-dependent adjustment for changes in therapy and in important prognostic variables is necessary to derive relatively unbiased estimates of treatment effects in observational studies of HIV infection.

Antiviral Agents↗