Status of the doctor--present and future.
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Forecasting↗
Biomedical subjects
A J Dunning
Publications and source records attributed to A J Dunning.
Analysis of risk factors for excess mortality after aortic valve replacement.
OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify risk factors for both late observed and late "excess" mortality after aortic valve replacement and to examine the causes of late mortality. BACKGROUND: Because operative mortality after aortic valve replacement is very low, the timing of surgical intervention should focus on maximizing long-term survival. However, to judge the effect of valve replacement on long-term survival in an elderly population, it is important to separate mortality resulting from extraneous causes (background mortality) from disease-related mortality (excess mortality). Background mortality can be estimated by calculating expected mortality on the basis of age and gender. METHODS: From 1966 to 1986, 643 patients (mean age 59.6 years, 138 [21%] > or = 70 years old) underwent aortic valve replacement, 129 of whom also underwent coronary bypass grafting; 594 patients survived > or = 30 days after the procedure. The overall operative mortality rate for isolated aortic valve replacement decreased over time from 25.5% (1966 to 1972) to 2.6% (1980 to 1986). Cumulative total follow-up after discharge was 3,603 patient-years. Multivariate analysis was performed for both observed and excess mortality. RESULTS: Risk factors for both observed and excess mortality were previous myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Although age > or = 70 years was a risk factor for observed mortality (hazard rate ratio [HRR] 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6 to 3.7), it was not a risk factor for excess mortality. In contrast, isolated aortic regurgitation was an important risk factor for excess mortality only (HRR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3 to 11.2). Late mortality was valve related in 22% of patients, including sudden death in 7% and cerebral vascular accidents in 7%. Congestive heart failure was an important cause of death (21%) irrespective of the time elapsed since aortic valve replacement. In patients with aortic regurgitation, congestive heart failure was the main cause of death (38%); in patients with aortic regurgitation and preoperative heart failure or severe left ventricular dysfunction, heart failure was the cause of death in 44% and 63%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of excess mortality revealed that older age in itself is not a risk factor for late mortality after aortic valve replacement. Aortic regurgitation carries a high risk, probably associated with left ventricular dysfunction at the time of operation. Earlier operation may be warranted in such patients.
Age Factors↗
[Prices and values].
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Health Care Costs↗
[Use of alternative medical procedures: between hope and fear].
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Complementary Therapies↗
Value of body surface mapping in localizing the site of origin of ventricular tachycardia in patients with previous myocardial infarction.
OBJECTIVES: This study examined the performance of the 62-lead body surface electrocardiogram (ECG) in identifying the site of origin of ventricular tachycardia in patients with a previous myocardial infarction. BACKGROUND: Because the accuracy of ECG localization of ventricular tachycardia using standard 12-lead recordings is restricted to the identification of rather large ventricular areas, application of multiple torso lead recordings may augment the resolving power of the surface ECG and result in more discrete localization of arrhythmogenic foci. METHODS: Thirty-two patients were selected for electrophysiologically guided ablative therapy for drug-resistant postinfarction ventricular tachycardia. In these patients, QRS integral maps of distinct monomorphic ventricular tachycardia configurations were correlated with a previously generated infarct-specific reference data base of paced QRS integral maps. Each paced pattern in the data base corresponded with ectopic endocardial impulse formation at 1 of 18 or 22 discrete segments of the left ventricle with a previous anterior or inferior myocardial infarction, respectively. Electrocardiographic localization was compared with the results obtained during intraoperative or catheter endocardial activation sequence mapping. RESULTS: Body surface mapping was performed during 101 distinct ventricular tachycardia configurations. Compared with the activation mapping data that were acquired in 64 of 101 ventricular tachycardias, body surface mapping identified the correct segment of origin in 40 (62%) of 64 tachycardias, a segment adjacent to the segment where the arrhythmia actually originated in 19 (30%) of 64 tachycardias and a segment disparate from the actual segment of origin in 5 (8%) of 64 tachycardias. With respect to infarct location, the segment of origin was correctly identified in 28 (60%) of 47 ventricular tachycardias in patients with anterior, 7 (70%) of 10 tachycardias in patients with inferior and 5 (71%) of 7 tachycardias in patients with combined anterior and inferior myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that body surface mapping enables precise localization of the origin of postinfarction ventricular tachycardia in 62% and regional approximation in 30% of tachycardias. The multiple-lead ECG may be used to guide and shorten catheter-based mapping procedures during ventricular tachycardia and to provide relevant information on the origin of tachycardias that cannot be mapped with conventional single-site mapping techniques because of unfavorable characteristics.
Body Surface Potential Mapping↗
Effect of various antithrombotic regimens (aspirin, aspirin plus dipyridamole, anticoagulants) on the functional status of patients and grafts one year after coronary artery bypass grafting.
From 1987 until 1991 a large prospective randomized multicentre study was performed in The Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland entitled CABADAS (Prevention of Coronary Artery Bypass graft occlusion by Aspirin, Dipyridamole, and Acenocoumarol/Phenprocoumon Study). The aim of CABADAS was to evaluate the relative efficacy of (1) aspirin, (2) aspirin plus dipyridamole, and (3) oral anticoagulants in the prevention of vein graft occlusion during the first year after aortocoronary bypass surgery. No significant difference was observed in the incidence of graft occlusion among the three treatment groups. In a subgroup of 127 CABADAS patients, studied in the Academic Medical Centre in Amsterdam, the relationship between treatment and clinical status (i.e. symptoms of angina pectoris and exercise capacity) was assessed, and the relationship between treatment and functional status of the vein grafts was determined by means of thallium-201 exercise scintigraphy. There were no differences in symptoms among the three treatment groups in the 127 patients studied. There were no significant differences either among the treatment groups, as regards exercise capacity and the number or intensity of perfusion defects, in the 81 patients who underwent thallium-201 exercise scintigraphy. The three antithrombotic treatment regimens had a similar effect on the clinical status of patients and on the functional status of venous bypass grafts one year after coronary bypass surgery. This finding underscores the CABADAS results in that aspirin may be the preferred treatment option in patients following venous bypass surgery.
Acenocoumarol↗
Effects of changes in management of active infective endocarditis on outcome in a 25-year period.
The clinical outcome and long-term follow-up of 130 consecutive patients (141 episodes) with active infective endocarditis who were treated between 1966 and 1991 were analyzed. There was a shift toward a higher proportion of referred patients (39 to 78%), patients aged > 60 years (11 to 41%) and urgent surgical treatment (11 to 44%). Medical treatment was administered in 98 patients (70%); 30-day mortality was 27%. Surgery was performed in 43 patients (30%), with an operative mortality of 26%; 9 of 14 patients (64%) who underwent operation within the first week of admission died. Patients with severe heart failure are at the highest risk for early mortality (relative risk = 21.1; 95% confidence interval 7.4-60.3). Referred patients were much more often treated surgically than were nonreferred patients (48 versus 14%) and had a lower operative mortality (24 vs 30%). Nonreferred patients were more often treated medically (86 vs 52%) and with lower mortality (19 vs 39%). The total follow-up time was 730 patient-years; only 1 patient was considered lost to follow-up. The overall cumulative 5-year and 10-year survival after hospital discharge for patients after urgent surgery were 84 +/- 7% and 53 +/- 7%, respectively, and for those after medical treatment 84 +/- 5% and 77 +/- 6%, respectively. The probability of remaining free of late events (recurrent endocarditis, late valve replacement or death) during 5 and 10 years for patients after urgent surgery was 84 +/- 7% and 53 +/- 15%, respectively, and for those after medical treatment 59 +/- 6% and 40 +/- 7%, respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Adolescent↗
[You can't have it both ways. 'Our options do not exclusively concern money'. Interview with Prof. A.J. Dunning. Interview by Toine de Graaf and Tonny van de Pasch].
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Health Care Costs↗
Background mortality in clinical survival studies.
In long-term follow-up studies of survival after an initial event (eg, an operation) mortality from causes other than the one under study obscures the results, especially in elderly patients. In the traditional approach to the calculation of expected mortality a fictitious cohort is drawn from the general population, being matched for age, sex, and calendar time at the time of the initial event. The membership of this cohort is then kept constant from the initial event until the closing date of the study. The survival and mortality of this static cohort is then compared with that of the dynamic patient cohort to throw light on mortality from extraneous causes. This method can lead to severe bias if there is a strong correlation between the duration of observation of the patients and their age. The analysis can be improved by applying rate adjustment when calculating the background component of mortality. In this approach mortality rates from the general population are adjusted (weighted) so that the age, sex, and calendar year are at all times identical with those of each of the patients still alive and under observation. This is illustrated by means of a simplified example and a real-life one from a study at survival after aortic valve replacement. Estimation of rate-adjusted background mortality provides a framework that may put long-term survival, especially of elderly patients, in proper perspective.
Adult↗
Spectral analysis of flow velocity in the contralateral artery during coronary angioplasty: a new method for assessing collateral flow.
OBJECTIVES: The present study was designed to evaluate a new method for assessing coronary collateral flow and resistance in conscious humans. BACKGROUND: Earlier pathomorphologic and invasive studies have indicated that collateral vessels are important for salvage of myocardium at risk in acute myocardial infarction. Only a few clinical studies have attempted to express the development of the collateral vascular bed in terms of flow or resistance. METHODS: Angiography and flow velocity measurements of the contralateral coronary artery were performed in 38 patients undergoing coronary angioplasty for one-vessel disease. Coronary flow velocity was assessed by zero-crossing frequency analysis in 37 patients and, additionally, by fast Fourier transform spectral analysis in 23. Collateral flow was determined by the decrease of flow velocity after balloon deflation. Mean aortic pressure and coronary wedge pressure were assessed for calculation of collateral vascular resistance. RESULTS: Angiography of the contralateral artery during balloon inflation revealed the presence of collateral vessels in 26 patients (recruitable collateral vessels in 19). Fast Fourier transform spectral analysis demonstrated a significant transient increase of flow velocity during brief coronary occlusion in 15 patients with collateral vessels compared with 8 patients without collateral vessels (4.8 +/- 1.3% vs. 23.4 +/- 17.2%, p < 0.001). A transient increase in flow velocity (> 10%) was less evident by zero-crossing frequency analysis than by fast Fourier transform spectral analysis (sensitivity 8% vs. 87%). The relative resistance of the collateral vascular bed was significantly reduced when collateral vessels were present during coronary occlusion (4.4 +/- 3.8 vs. 16.9 +/- 4.6, p < 0.001). Furthermore, electrocardiographic signs of ischemia were less present in those 15 patients with collateral vessels (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The beneficial effect of collateral vessels during brief coronary occlusion is exerted by a significant increase of flow in the contralateral artery in combination with a reduced resistance in the collateral vascular bed. The method presented is capable of expressing the development of the collateral vascular bed in terms of flow and resistance.
Adult↗
Localization of the site of origin of postinfarction ventricular tachycardia by endocardial pace mapping. Body surface mapping compared with the 12-lead electrocardiogram.
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess the value of body surface mapping and the standard 12-lead ECG in localizing the site of origin of postinfarction ventricular tachycardia (VT) during endocardial pace mapping of the left ventricle. METHODS AND RESULTS: Simultaneous recordings of 62-lead body surface QRS integral maps and scalar 12-lead ECG tracings were obtained in 16 patients with prior myocardial infarction during a total of 26 distinct VT configurations and during subsequent left ventricular catheter pace mapping at 9 to 24 different endocardial sites. Anatomic pacing site locations were computed by means of a biplane cineradiographic method and plotted on a polar projection of the left ventricle. The QRS integral map and the QRS complexes of the 12 standard leads of each VT morphology obtained in a particular patient were compared independently with the different paced QRS integral maps and paced QRS complexes of the 12-lead ECG generated in that same patient. The stimulus site locations of the best matching paced QRS integral map and paced QRS complexes of the 12-lead ECG were indicated on the polar projection and subsequently compared with the endocardial location of the corresponding site of VT origin identified during intraoperative (surgical ablation) or catheter activation sequence mapping (catheter ablation). The localization resolution of pace mapping was established separately for each electrocardiographic technique by computing the size of endocardial areas with similar morphological features of the QRS complex. Pace mapping advocated with body surface mapping or the 12-lead ECG enabled adequate reproduction of the VT QRS morphology in 24 of 26 VTs (92%) and 25 of 26 VTs (96%), respectively. Activation sequence mapping identified the site of origin in 12 of 26 previously observed VT configurations (46%). Ten and 11 VTs were localized by activation sequence mapping and pace mapping combined with body surface mapping or the 12-lead ECG, respectively. Pace mapping applied with body surface mapping identified the site of origin correctly (distance < or = 2 cm) in 8 of 10 compared VTs (80%); an adjacent site (distance between 2 and 4 cm) or a disparate site (distance > or = 4 cm) was identified in the remaining 2 of 10 VTs (20%). Pace mapping used with the 12-lead ECG localized the site of origin correctly in 2 of 11 VTs (18%); the site of origin was identified correctly next to an additional adjacent site in 5 of 11 VTs (55%); and an adjacent site or a disparate site was found in 1 of 11 VTs (9%) and 2 of 11 VTs (18%), respectively. The difference in localization accuracy of both electrocardiographic techniques was statistically significant (P = .02). The mean size of endocardial areas where a comparable QRS morphology was obtained during pace mapping was 6.0 +/- 4.5 cm2 with the application of body surface mapping and 15.1 +/- 12.0 cm2 with the use of the 12-lead ECG. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that application of the 62-lead instead of the 12-lead ECG during endocardial pace mapping enhances the localization resolution of this mapping technique and enables more precise identification of the site of arrhythmogenesis in the majority of compared postinfarction VT episodes.
Aged↗
[Meeting reports in the Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde; value for readers and associations].
OBJECTIVE: To determine the objective of scientific association proceedings in the Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Geneeskunde (NTvG) and whether the objective is met by publication. DESIGN: Interview. SETTING: The editorial office of NTvG MATERIAL AND METHODS: The clinical relevancy of the proceedings published in 1990 and 1991 was determined using selection criteria. 53 (former) secretaries of scientific associations which publish their proceedings in NTvG were interviewed by written questionnaire, and 101 physicians were interviewed by telephone, asking for their opinion on the objective and the use of publishing the proceedings. RESULTS: Of the proceedings (1610 abstracts) published in 1990 and 1991 20% were considered clinically relevant. The opinion of the secretaries of the associations was that the objective of the proceedings is to record medical information and to provide a medical newspaper for the latest reports of the associations, mostly intended for all readers of the NTvG. The secretaries usually correct the abstracts with respect to form and to a lesser extent to informative value. Editorial office selection of the abstracts was not considered desirable, guidelines with regard to writing an abstract of the proceedings were appreciated. More than half of the family physicians read the proceedings, but often considered them too specialised. Half of these thought editorial office selection of the abstracts advisable. About 80% of the specialists read the proceedings, of which the informative value was considered variable. They disapproved of editorial selection. In general physicians read the proceedings very selectively. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical relevancy of the abstracts of the proceedings leaves much to be desired. The objective is to provide a medical record and a newspaper for all readers, but these read the proceedings very selectively. The informative value could be improved. Abstract selection should be in the hands of the associations' secretaries only, but guidelines from the editorial office on writing abstracts are welcomed.
Congresses as Topic↗
[Aortic valve stenosis as cause of cardiac decompensation].
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Aged↗
Value of exercise Doppler echocardiography in patients with prosthetic or bioprosthetic cardiac valves.
Doppler echocardiographic evaluation of the prosthetic valve function is usually performed at rest, although this situation is not representative for patients' daily activities. Therefore, a symptom-limited Master 2-step test was performed in 61 asymptomatic patients with normal left ventricular function. No adequate Doppler signals were obtained in 5 of 61 patients (8%) within 60 second after termination of exercise. In patients with aortic valve prostheses (n = 24), heart rate increased from 74 +/- 10 to 105 +/- 18 beats/min, the maximal instantaneous gradient from 44 (range 22 to 90) to 68 (range 28 to 165) mm Hg (r = 0.89) and the mean gradient from 24 (range 12 to 50) to 39 (range 18 to 100) mm Hg (r = 0.90). In 6 of 11 patients with a maximal flow velocity ratio between the left ventricular outflow tract and the aortic valve prosthesis less than or equal to 0.25, the mean gradient increased to a value greater than or equal to 50 mm Hg after exercise, whereas in patients with a ratio of greater than or equal to 0.25, this never occurred. In patients with mitral valve prostheses (n = 39), heart rate increased from 80 +/- 12 to 116 +/- 14 beats/min and mean gradient from 6 (range 3 to 10) to 14 (range 6 to 25) mm Hg (r = 0.59). The correlation of the mean diastolic pressure gradient after exercise with pressure half-time was 0.66. Systolic pulmonary artery pressure at rest and after exercise could be determined in 22 of 39 patients (56%) and increased from 34 (range 20 to 70) to 57 (range 35 to 110) mm Hg. It is concluded that the response to exercise can, to a large extent, be inferred from Doppler parameters at rest, particularly in patients with aortic valve prostheses. The clinical implication of the high gradients found in some asymptomatic patients in the present study should be elucidated by follow-up studies.
Adolescent↗